Early returns

I’m a day ahead of myself this week, which means that I am pretty darn sure it’s Thursday right now even though it is … definitively not Thursday. I know this in part because my computer calendar tells me so, but mostly because we have election results to discuss, which means it has to be Wednesday. “Occasionally knowing for sure that it’s not Thursday” is definitely the unsung hero of political journalism as a career choice. You heard it here first.

The Big Takeaway

Most people are probably not surprised by the day of the week, just like most people are probably not surprised that U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) lost her re-election bid to a Donald Trump-endorsed GOP challenger. Cheney, who serves as vice-chair of the Jan. 6 committee, captured less than 30% of the vote in Wyoming’s Republican primary on Tuesday. In her last primary, she won 73%, WyoFile reported.

It’s an astonishingly quick turnaround that demonstrates Trump’s continued stranglehold over the GOP. Cheney acknowledged as much in her concession speech, telling supporters that she could have coasted to another term by parroting the repeatedly debunked (and increasingly ridiculous) lie that Trump was the rightful winner of the 2020 presidential election. 

“That was a path I could not and would not take,” she said.

Harriet Hageman, Cheney’s soon-to-be replacement if elected come November, struck a different tone at a victory party on the other side of the state, framing her victory as a resounding referendum from voters “concerned that the game is becoming more and more rigged against them.” 

“What Wyoming has shown today is that while it may not be easy, we can dislodge entrenched politicians who believe that they have risen above the people they are supposed to represent,” said Hageman, who eagerly accepted an endorsement from a former president who asked supporters to fund his attempt to overturn the results of a fair election, then funneled the money to organizations helmed by his cronies.

The “entrenched politicians” fared slightly better in Alaska, where preliminary results from the state’s nonpartisan primary showed U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski maintaining a 5,063-vote lead against Kelly Tshibaka, yet another Trump-approved challenger. Both will likely advance to November’s general election, where four candidates will face off in a ranked-choice voting contest.

Murkowski’s slim margin of victory was interpreted as another testament to Trump’s influence, experts told the Alaska Beacon. Murkowski, a pro-choice Republican with a 20-year tenure in the U.S. Senate, is “a tried-and-true tested” lawmaker who has served Alaska “really well financially and in other ways,” according to Amy Lauren Lovecraft, a political science professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. A rejection of Murkowski, she added, “is going to absolutely be a Trump effect.”

The Trump effect was also a factor in the state’s special election to select a successor for U.S. Rep. Don Young, who died in March with roughly a year left in his term. Actually, it’s probably more accurate to refer to it as the Original Trump effect — or maybe just Palin power. Yep, I’m talking about former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a Republican who walked so Donald Trump could run — and who may soon walk the halls of Congress, according to preliminary results from Tuesday’s contest.

As of Wednesday morning, Palin was in second place with 32.59% of first-choice votes in the ranked-choice voting contest. (You can read a quick primer on that process in yesterday’s newsletter, but it’s basically just the real-world equivalent of electing a prom queen.) She trails Democrat Mary Peltola (38.38% of first-choice votes) by a fairly large and fairly deceptive margin that’s likely the result of GOP voters breaking between Palin and Republican Nick Begich (29.03% of top-tier votes).

All of which will probably work to Palin’s advantage. Officials won’t finalize the race results until Aug. 31, the last day that mail-in ballots can be accepted. If none of the candidates clear 50% of first-choice votes after the final tally, the third-place candidate will be eliminated. Any ballots that listed that candidate in first place will be recounted, with votes shifting to whichever candidate is listed second.

And if Begich is the first one eliminated, that’s likely to be Palin. (Ironically, she doesn’t like ranked-choice voting. I weep.) It could also be no one — voters don’t have to rank all three candidates, and Palin is a polarizing choice — which would theoretically benefit Peltola. The Democrat said Tuesday she was actively lobbying conservative voters to consider her as an alternative, a smart (if unrealistic) Election Day side hustle.

“I’ve been asking people directly,” she said. “When I’d see somebody with a sign either Sarah or Nick, I’d ask them, ‘Hey, would you consider me as your second-choice vote?’ And it was very favorable, the reactions that I got. A lot of laughter, a lot of thumbs up, a lot of positivity.”

I probably would not feel so positive about the laughter: Arkansas congressmen report millions in trips, investments and book deals … (Arkansas) Boozman will play key role in farm bill no matter who controls U.S. Senate … Political Soapbox: Here’s what candidates are saying at the Iowa State Fair … Pay for Louisiana Capitol security director will rival police chief compensation … (Minnesota) Carver County votes to use more partisan election judges in November election … (Montana) Tribal leader: Without Election Day voting, ballot collection, Native Americans don’t have a voice … (Nebraska) GOP candidate Pillen won’t debate Democrat Blood in governor’s race … Ronchetti campaign receives donation from fake New Mexico elector … How Wisconsin voters are reacting to the Jan. 6 committee revelations about Trump

Reproductive Rights

A Florida appellate court on Monday denied a request from a 16-year-old girl who wanted to terminate her 10-week pregnancy without parental consent, saying the minor did not provide “clear and convincing evidence” that she was “sufficiently mature” to decide whether to have an abortion. 

The 3-1 ruling affirmed an earlier decision from a county judge, who wrote that she might be willing to“re-evaluate” if the girl happened to become sufficiently mature to “adequately articulate her request … at a later date.”

Photo break while I gather my composure!!!!

Let’s start with the decision’s glaring logical fallacy: The notion that someone who is not mature enough to decide whether to have a baby is somehow also mature enough to have a baby. (Have you ever met a baby? I am here to tell you that having a baby — even an easy one! — is infinity times harder than deciding to have a baby.)

Even without that dubious justification, the decision makes no sense. First, the girl in question doesn’t have parents; according to a dissenting opinion, she lives with a relative and has been appointed a guardian. (She told the court that her guardian is “fine” with the idea of abortion, which is a heartbreakingly 16-year-old thing to say in court and also one that obviously does not constitute legal consent.)

The girl doesn’t attend school but is pursuing her GED through a program that caters specifically to traumatized teens. Court documents did not specify the nature of her trauma, though they did explain that she’s under “extra stress” after the death of a friend. (Court documents also did not ponder the effect that having to explain one’s unwanted pregnancy to a bunch of judges might have on said trauma.)

My point is that it’s unlikely she has the support to piece together a more convincing argument to terminate her own pregnancy, and that’s before you factor in the time crunch. Abortions are banned in Florida after 15 weeks of pregnancy unless they’re needed to save the life of the pregnant person (being a victim of rape or incest is not considered life-threatening). That gives the girl about a month to achieve some vague level of maturity that will convince a judge that she’s capable of deciding she’s not mature enough to have a baby. (My head hurts.)

The good news, if you can call it that, is that the state is unlikely to tighten its abortion ban in that time period. Harsher restrictions — namely, an all-out ban — will probably come after November’s election, when Gov. Ron DeSantis can push them through without having to deal with those pesky voters who pay his salary.

“He is planning to call a special session in November, that is what he has signaled,” state Sen. Randolph Bracy, a Democrat representing part of Orange County, said Tuesday. “And he is signaling that he will institute an all-out ban on abortions here in our state.”

Still have not located my composure: (Florida) Prosecutor Andrew Warren sues Gov. DeSantis in federal court over his suspension from office … (North Carolina) Duke physicians express worry about the new abortion restrictions – and those to come … (Ohio) DeWine funds more anti-abortion resources, some for adolescent pregnancy … Not 1925: Texas’ law banning abortion dates to before the Civil War

From the Newsrooms

• Restoring the lost art of seed saving in New Hampshire
• (Arizona) Public school advocates blocked a voucher expansion in 2018. Can they do it again?
• Tennessee court rules Confederate memorabilia in jury room not prejudicial
• ‘Blood from stone’: Kansas Court of Appeals examines endless probation for poor people
• (Louisiana) Slave descendants appeal to U.N. to halt St. John grain elevator

One Last Thing

Are you a millennial? Do you, too, have no idea if you were vaccinated for polio? (Do you, too, think it’s Thursday?) If so, take heart: If you grew up in the United States, you’re probably vaccinated, according to this story from The New York Times that only subtly makes fun of millennials (by far millennials’ favorite way to be made fun of). 

This edition of the Evening Wrap published on August 17, 2022. Subscribe here.