Storm boosts Montana water outlook slightly as state prepares for fire season

The widespread snow and rain that much of Montana received during the past few days might have been a “season-changing event” after one of the driest winters in two decades, but longer-term water supply and drought forecasts show the state still faces long odds of seeing normal streamflows this summer or eliminating drought, forecasters said Thursday.

The Governor’s Drought and Water Supply Advisory Committee met Thursday morning to discuss the latest developments with Montana’s snowpack, drought and water supply a day after Gov. Greg Gianforte and other state and federal officials gave their fire briefing for the season.

At both meetings, officials said it would still be about another month until they have a good idea of what the low-snowpack winter and forecasted low water supply, mixed with ongoing drought, would mean for the fire season after a relatively tame 2023. State and federal agency heads said Wednesday they were prepared to work together to try and knock down any wildfires as quickly as possible.

But soil moisture and drought are key factors that contribute to how likely it is for a fire to start in a given area and whether those fires are primed to become intense and grow quickly, and presentations Thursday by the water supply and drought committee members show there remain concerns about how the dry winter could affect conditions moving into the summer.

But what had been a more dire presentation planned for Thursday changed with the storm that moved through this week, dumping several inches of rain in central and eastern Montana and more than a foot of snow in several mountain ranges.

“The picture’s changed pretty dramatically, and in this time of year, that’s a really good thing that’s going to make all of our summers better,” said Michael Downey, the Drought Program Coordinator with the Department of Natural Resources and Conservation.

The May water supply forecast that was issued on Tuesday was already slightly out of date by Thursday because of the storms, National Resources and Conservation Service Water Supply Specialist Eric Larson said.

Rocky Boy’s Reservation and the Bear Paw Mountains picked up about 8 inches of precipitation during the past three days. Lewistown saw nearly 4 inches of precipitation in this week’s storms, as did the Little Belt Mountains and the area south of Forsyth.

Sidney, Malta and Wolf Point all saw more than an inch of precipitation during the past three days. The Bridger Mountains picked up 20 inches of snow, and locations in Fergus, Gallatin, Hill, Judith Basin, Lewis and Clark, Meagher, Pondera and Teton counties all saw more than a foot of snow from the storm.

“With people obviously getting crops in and planted, this is the multimillion-dollar storm, and of course some producers will have missed it and others will be thanking their lucky stars that they got done planting,” Downey said.

But the storm also brought only a little rain to some areas, including Glendive, where moderate drought has been in place for weeks. The Rocky Mountain Front, which is experiencing severe and extreme drought as of this week, also saw little precipitation south and west of Mount Lockhart.

That means the rest of May and June, which are typically the wettest months for most Montana counties, will need to continue to bring precipitation and average or below-normal temperatures in order to boost the water supply ahead of what is forecast to be a hot summer, Downey said.

“Temperature is just so determinative of what happens with our soil moisture and then ultimately with the drought onset or removal, and do we keep getting our rains? As the director just noted, when it comes to thinking about things like fire danger, we are still very much in a wait-and-see mode,” Downey said.

Zach Hoylman, the assistant state climatologist, said this week’s precipitation improved soil moisture conditions in the areas that saw the most moisture, even down to 8-10 inches into the ground. But the dry soils across most of the state mean the water did not penetrate down further into the 20- and 40-inch ranges. He said the top-level recharge is a positive development for agricultural producers and for drought but a deeper percolation would be beneficial.

The storms did cause a slight uptick in the overall statewide snowpack but provided a needed boost to some river basins that had through last week been reporting snow-water equivalent levels below 50% of the median from 1991 to 2020.

Thursday’s statewide snowpack was at 11.7 inches of snow-water equivalent, up from 10.4 inches on May 6 but still nearly 2 inches below the median snowpack for May 9 of 13.5 inches.

The greatest benefactor from the storm was the Smith-Judith-Musselshell basin, which went from 56% of its median snowpack on May 6 to 82% on May 8. But large improvements were also seen in the Upper Missouri (43% to 59% of median), Sun-Teton-Marias (45% to 63% of median), Gallatin (71% to 83% of median), Powder (88% to 107% of median), and Tongue basins (88% to 105% of median) because of the storm.

Larson compared this year to three other similar years in terms of the snowpack: 2001, 2005 and 2015. He said 2001 was likely the best comparison for the full winter and that year, no water came, streamflows took a dive through the summer and drought expanded and worsened across the state.

In 2015, significant precipitation fell in the spring and water conditions improved going into the summer, while in 2005, there was decent spring precipitation and about normal runoff levels.

But even with significant rainfall and any snow during the next two months far exceeding averages, it’s likely that rivers including the Bitterroot, Clark Fork, Upper Yellowstone and Upper Missouri would still see only 80% to 105% of its normal streamflows for the summer. Under normal precipitation conditions, most rivers are forecast to be running about 50% to 70% of normal, Larson said.

Aaron Fiaschetti, the data management section chief for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Wyoming-Montana Science Center, said the cooler weather during the past few days have put a pause on runoff temporarily, which he said he hoped would be a longer-term trend to “inch the water we do have a little further down the line,” though temperatures are expected to be in the 60s and 70s for the next several days across most of the state.

He said he hopes that this year does not follow the same trend as 2001, when a dry winter transitioned to an even drier and warmer summer and caused widespread extreme drought.

“If 2001 is kind of the direction we’re headed, it doesn’t look so good. So just from what I have to say is it’s just still early right now, and we can kind of hope and pray for that rain to materialize and the snow to stay in the mountains and it to be cold and come out slowly,” Fiaschetti said. “It’s a low snowpack year so we’re kind of in that glass-half-empty scenario. Average now or below average now doesn’t mean it’s going to be like that later; it’s dynamic and it can change.”

But about 43% of Montana is already experiencing moderate drought or worse, and the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting drought to either persist or worsen in most areas of the state throught he summer.

“My prediction, so I hope that I’m going to be wrong, which is that we’re going to see drought conditions persisting across the state,” Downey said. “We’re obviously in better shape than we have been in a number of Mays we looked at … but we’re not going to see drought removal heading into summer.”

Governor, agencies say they will aggressively attack wildfires

Gianforte said the state would continue its approach of aggressively attacking wildfires as soon as they start – he said 96% of Montana wildfires were contained to 10 acres of less last year – and continuing to manage land and forests to try to reduce fuel loads this year.

“We must respond with one goal – to put the fire out as quickly and as safely as possible,” the governor said. “Regardless of where a fire starts, we must apply the same operating principle, and that is aggressive attack.”

He and DNRC director Amanda Kaster lauded the state’s expansion of 25,000 acres of forest placed under state management and a bill passed last year that sent $60 million to the department for forest management as examples of the state’s commitment to preventing fires through increased management.

Matt Hall, the DNRC’s fire protection bureau chief, said there are still open jobs for wildland firefighters with the state who will get paid $19.05 an hour starting in July, a roughly $1.50 increase more than last year. He said the DNRC hoped to fill those positions in the next couple of weeks.

National Park Service regional fire management officer Paul Cerda said the service currently has a 6% vacancy rate but has had issues finding housing for firefighters. The park service will also be running Conservation Corps crews in Glacier and Yellowstone national parks.

Bureau of Indian Affairs regional fire management officer Bryce Rogers also said housing had been an issue and part of what has caused 60% vacancy rates in recent years, but he said he’s hopeful this year’s recruitment will go better.

Renea Dorvall, the brigadier general for the Montana National Guard, said there were 2,400 guard personnel ready to work this summer if they are needed, along with 400 members who are certified wildland firefighters, though Gianforte said he would only use the National Guard if needed.

And despite not yet being briefed on how current climatological conditions might affect the fire season, Gianforte said he understood some of the factors at play heading into the summer.

“We all know the snowpack has been light, so we don’t know,” he said. “The good news is, as of this morning, I understand we had three feet of snow at Monarch. So, will that stick around? Hopefully.”