Summer air quality ‘will not be as catastrophic as 2023,’ state meteorologist says

Air quality in Minnesota this year is expected to be slightly worse than average but still better than last year’s record-breaking numbers, according to the latest forecast from the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency.

“We have increasing confidence that the season will not be as catastrophic as 2023,” MPCA meteorologist Matt Taraldsen said at a press briefing on Thursday. 

Canadian wildfires were responsible for many of the air quality alerts issued in 2023, Taraldsen said, and so far this year’s season is off to a much quieter start.

MPCA issues an air quality alert when levels of fine particles or ozone reach the Environmental Protection Agency’s orange level, meaning the air is unhealthy for sensitive groups. Last year MPCA put out 22 such alerts covering 52 calendar days.

This year the agency expects to issue from two to four ozone alerts and between five and seven fine particle alerts for wildfire smoke. 

The EPA recently tightened federal regulations governing annual averages of fine particle pollution. It also slightly adjusted several thresholds of the color-coded air quality index used to track real-time exposure, reflecting the latest science on the harm caused by air pollution.

Neither change will result in differences to how MPCA alerts the public about air quality issues, Taraldsen said. Minnesota’s annual pollution levels are already lower than what the new standard allows, and the air quality index changes don’t affect the threshold MPCA uses to determine when to issue alerts.

But the agency will be paying special attention to how heat and poor air quality influence each other. Ozone levels are worse on hotter days, for instance, and some research suggests that the health effects of fine particle pollution are more pronounced when the temperature is high.

At the briefing MPCA Commissioner Katrina Kessler emphasized the role of climate change both as a contributor to bad air in Minnesota, and as a threat to the way of life in the state. “The identity of Minnesota — our homes, our lakes, our rivers, our cold weather traditions, and our sunny vibrant summers — are at stake,” she said.